<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=190 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=135 colSpan=2>
</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>Tony George thinks Martz is one dangerous guy to bank on. (AP)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=290 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top width="40%" height=20>NFL</TD><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top align=right width="60%" height=20>Thu, Jan 6, 2005 </TD></TR><TR><TD width="100%" colSpan=2>How to cash in on the NFL playoffs </TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 width="100%" colSpan=2>Tony George</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The NFL playoffs are a different animal to handicap, not too far off from the college bowl games actually. The three big intangibles are special teams, turnovers and field position.
You have to take a look at season-long indicators with both teams involved in a game to see what the ratio's are in terms of these intangible items. While you can never predict an intangible item, you can look at tendencies of a team over a season to get a handle on what you are dealing with when looking at a game for a pointspread opportunity.
Penalties in the game are also a huge factor in the NFL, both in the regular season and postseason - that item is easly researched.
It simply boils down to man-to-man matchups in the trenches and at wide receiver and defensive back matchups. Almost every playoff team has a good running back and good quarterback.
The AFC looks to be the stronger conference by far, and provides much more parity in terms of matchups this year. You also must remember that any team in the NFL playoffs, regardless of how they managed to get in, is a good football team. <LINK type=text/css rel=stylesheet src="/STYLES/base.css"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=220 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=gradblue>More Stories</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#999999 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#999999 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Injuries don't look good for Jets bets</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Brees caps wins Comeback Player award</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Chargers head up bizarre NFL season</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Preview: Vikings vs. Packers</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Preview: Broncos vs. Colts</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TR></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I also have to look at the health of a team. Many players are dealing with the effects of a season long torture test of endurance, and there are those select few players that have been around the block that will play through those bumps and bruises. There are also others that will not.
I can assure you that no one player in the NFL is 100 percent right now, and the teams with an extra week with first-round byes are at a clear advantage in terms of preparation and health.
As you might imagine, teams that struggle in a four-quarter war in Round 1 of the playoffs are clearly at a disadvantage in terms of health, morale and overall condition when they hit the road the following week.
However, over the years I have seen Vegas oddsmakers overcompensate with lines in this scenario; it basically boils down to good teams beating bad teams based on a few simplistic items of fundamental handicapping.
I am not a big trend player in the NFL playoffs because the bottom line is that most teams play to their potential and these playoff games have to be looked at on a situational basis. You can look at season long stats all you want, but I look at the last three games played, while throwing out Week 16 when many teams play reserves more than their starters.
Teams like the Rams, Vikings, Jets played to their potential (sad as that sounds since two of these teams lost SU), so you have to adjust and bring in Week 16 numbers to look at when handicapping games they are involved in.
Finally, you can't overlook coaching and experience. Coaching is a key in the playoffs, especially with guys that have been down this road before as a head coach or a head coordinator. I consider this a 3-point advantage in most games and anyone worth their salt will tell you a head coach making big time calls with the game on the line counts big time.
The Rams' Mike Martz is one dangerous guy to bank on. Some call him a River Boat gambler; I call him the worst head coach in the playoffs by far.
Martz has proven time and again that he's good for one colossal blunder per game, whether it's a bonehead calls and or a special teams risk he doesn't need to take. I am not so sure how hard his guys play for him during the course of the game when he does this.
Experience of players in playoff games is also worth leveraging into your handicapping. Pittsburgh is a good example, as their phenom quarterback has yet to ever taste a playoff level game. Although he has led his team to a 15-1 record and has beaten the Pats and Eagles, it is a whole new ball game when every play you make or throw away will cost you the Super Bowl. This is a kind of pressure that many young guys have never felt and it will factor in certain scenario's with young teams.
As you can see, it is never an easy road to have success handicapping the NFL Playoffs, but I have managed a 68 percent ATS win rate since 1996 with a 55-25 record against the Las Vegas line using many of the techniques I have laid out in this article. Notes: The NFC playoff race is anybody's game, as you may want to consider the fact that Philly went 0-2 to end the year and their starters have seen little action lately... Home field in the AFC will be a key for the Steelers, but once again, do not think for a minute that they will not have World War III on their hands with the teams that they will face, even at home... I assure you the NFC and AFC Championship games will be the best games played all year in the NFL, and most notably better than the Super Bowl, as last year's Super Bowl will be hard to top in the foreseeable future.
The NFL playoffs are a different animal to handicap, not too far off from the college bowl games actually. The three big intangibles are special teams, turnovers and field position.
You have to take a look at season-long indicators with both teams involved in a game to see what the ratio's are in terms of these intangible items. While you can never predict an intangible item, you can look at tendencies of a team over a season to get a handle on what you are dealing with when looking at a game for a pointspread opportunity.
Penalties in the game are also a huge factor in the NFL, both in the regular season and postseason - that item is easly researched.
It simply boils down to man-to-man matchups in the trenches and at wide receiver and defensive back matchups. Almost every playoff team has a good running back and good quarterback.
The AFC looks to be the stronger conference by far, and provides much more parity in terms of matchups this year. You also must remember that any team in the NFL playoffs, regardless of how they managed to get in, is a good football team. <LINK type=text/css rel=stylesheet src="/STYLES/base.css"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=220 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=gradblue>More Stories</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#999999 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#999999 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Injuries don't look good for Jets bets</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Brees caps wins Comeback Player award</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Chargers head up bizarre NFL season</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Preview: Vikings vs. Packers</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smtext2 vAlign=top bgColor=#ffffff height=19>• Preview: Broncos vs. Colts</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TR></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I also have to look at the health of a team. Many players are dealing with the effects of a season long torture test of endurance, and there are those select few players that have been around the block that will play through those bumps and bruises. There are also others that will not.
I can assure you that no one player in the NFL is 100 percent right now, and the teams with an extra week with first-round byes are at a clear advantage in terms of preparation and health.
As you might imagine, teams that struggle in a four-quarter war in Round 1 of the playoffs are clearly at a disadvantage in terms of health, morale and overall condition when they hit the road the following week.
However, over the years I have seen Vegas oddsmakers overcompensate with lines in this scenario; it basically boils down to good teams beating bad teams based on a few simplistic items of fundamental handicapping.
I am not a big trend player in the NFL playoffs because the bottom line is that most teams play to their potential and these playoff games have to be looked at on a situational basis. You can look at season long stats all you want, but I look at the last three games played, while throwing out Week 16 when many teams play reserves more than their starters.
Teams like the Rams, Vikings, Jets played to their potential (sad as that sounds since two of these teams lost SU), so you have to adjust and bring in Week 16 numbers to look at when handicapping games they are involved in.
Finally, you can't overlook coaching and experience. Coaching is a key in the playoffs, especially with guys that have been down this road before as a head coach or a head coordinator. I consider this a 3-point advantage in most games and anyone worth their salt will tell you a head coach making big time calls with the game on the line counts big time.
The Rams' Mike Martz is one dangerous guy to bank on. Some call him a River Boat gambler; I call him the worst head coach in the playoffs by far.
Martz has proven time and again that he's good for one colossal blunder per game, whether it's a bonehead calls and or a special teams risk he doesn't need to take. I am not so sure how hard his guys play for him during the course of the game when he does this.
Experience of players in playoff games is also worth leveraging into your handicapping. Pittsburgh is a good example, as their phenom quarterback has yet to ever taste a playoff level game. Although he has led his team to a 15-1 record and has beaten the Pats and Eagles, it is a whole new ball game when every play you make or throw away will cost you the Super Bowl. This is a kind of pressure that many young guys have never felt and it will factor in certain scenario's with young teams.
As you can see, it is never an easy road to have success handicapping the NFL Playoffs, but I have managed a 68 percent ATS win rate since 1996 with a 55-25 record against the Las Vegas line using many of the techniques I have laid out in this article. Notes: The NFC playoff race is anybody's game, as you may want to consider the fact that Philly went 0-2 to end the year and their starters have seen little action lately... Home field in the AFC will be a key for the Steelers, but once again, do not think for a minute that they will not have World War III on their hands with the teams that they will face, even at home... I assure you the NFC and AFC Championship games will be the best games played all year in the NFL, and most notably better than the Super Bowl, as last year's Super Bowl will be hard to top in the foreseeable future.
